The report “Strømforsyningen 2035: Hva er det plass til av industri- og samfunnsutvikling” (The power supply in 2035: How much industrial and societal development can be accommodated) shows that Norway is facing a historic wave of investment in the power grid, but that there is still a substantial gap relative to the demand for grid capacity. By not meeting this demand, Norway risks missing out on value creation and on opportunities to cut emissions. The report is based on figures from the seven largest regional grid companies in Norway and scales the figures up per region (the methodology is described on page 7 of the report). The main findings are summarised below. The full report is available via the link below (only in Norwegian).
- In recent years there has been a massive increase in connection requests to the grid companies across the country, both in the number of cases and in the size of individual projects (in MW).
- To date, between 15 and 36 per cent (varying between regions) of the requests registered with the regional grid companies have been accommodated in the existing or planned grid. The remainder must wait in the capacity queue.
- Actual demand for grid capacity is uncertain. Projects in the connection queue may be immature, the same project may have applied for capacity with several grid companies, political priorities change, and developers may overstate their capacity needs.
- To handle this uncertainty, three outcome ranges have been defined for the gap between demand and plans towards 2035.
- Nationwide, the estimated demand gap is between 8.4 GW and 16.3 GW. By comparison, today’s peak load is approximately 25 GW.
- There is also a gap between requests from generation and from consumption in several parts of the country. If the gap persists, it could result in a tighter capacity balance and more volatile power prices.
- The grid companies are working faster than ever to increase grid capacity. On average, capacity increases equivalent to 70 per cent of today’s peak load are planned over the next ten years – capacity that by comparison has been built up over 100 years.
- Half of the new capacity comes from better utilisation and refurbishment of the existing grid.
- Over the coming years, the rate of investment will increase significantly compared with 2024, a record year for regional grid investment: NOK 8.2 billion per year on average, against NOK 4.6 billion in 2024.
- Several grid companies already report difficulties recruiting the right expertise, such as electrical engineers, IT/OT resources and cyber security – a need that is expected to grow.
- Even with a sharp increase in capacity, the companies expect only 1–5 per cent more land use for grid infrastructure towards 2035, since much of the increase comes from better utilisation and refurbishment of the existing grid.
