Understanding how markets work is critical to testing the robustness of possible corporate strategies and policy instruments. At the same time, one needs to understand how the market actors behave and how policy influences the market to conduct good market analyses.
We place great emphasis and devote considerable resources to maintaining both our market databases and up-to-date knowledge of the regulatory framework, trends and driving forces in several relevant markets. Market analysis constitutes an important foundation for, among other things, the development of company plans and business strategies, private and socio-economic investment decisions, due diligence processes and public policy analysis.
To understand how different markets work, we begin by mapping and characterising supply and demand in the market. Who are the actors and what products are traded? How are the products marketed and how are prices set?
We then make a thorough assessment of the drivers of market developments, partly based on an analysis of past data and partly based on what can be expected of the future regulatory environment, technological developments and developments in neighboring markets. In the energy sector, for example, it is important to have good data on production capacity and costs, an awareness of fuel price developments and an understanding of how climate policy affects the markets, etc. Our market analyses include an overview of the most important drivers, a set of internally consistent scenarios and sensitivity analyses.
It is also crucial to understand the competitiveness of other markets and how various markets influence one another. As a result, our market analysis often includes a broad perspective, in which the interaction between, for example, the power, coal, gas and carbon markets is given special attention.
We offer a wide range of market analysis products and services, from price forecasts for the Nordic and European power markets to detailed quantitative analyses connected to due diligence processes and investment analyses.
In addition to power market analyses, we also offer analyses covering the gas, carbon (EU ETS), and the Norwegian-Swedish elcertificate markets, as well as the market for Guarantees of Origin. We have also conducted studies of the market for waste, the prospects and regulations for the production of hydrogen, and the market outlook for electric vehicles, to name a few.
Examples of the questions covered by our market analysis include:
- How is the construction of new renewable generation capacity affected by changes in both technology costs and the cost of carbon?
- How do political goals and support schemes affect both the power and carbon markets?
- How do the electrification of transport and the emergence of new technology options affect the power market?
- How would the electrification of the offshore oil and gas industry affect both the carbon market and long-term additions to power generation capacity?
We have experts in quantitative and market analysis. In our market analysis work, we use several sophisticated models, or develop models and analytical tools that are tailor-made to analyze the specific task or challenge.
In addition to being able to solve complex quantitative tasks, we communicate the solutions and results understandably and transparently.
Our standard price forecasts are based on thorough analyses of power markets in the Nordics and the rest of Europe, as well as the carbon (EU ETS) market, and the markets for Guarantees of Origin and the Norwegian-Swedish el-certificates. These forecasts are updated four times a year.
See also Price forecasts and models.
