Norway’s new strategic body for research, development, and innovation (RDI) in petroleum, zero-emission energy, and seabed minerals – Energi2050 – is entering an extensive strategy process. To provide a solid knowledge base, THEMA has prepared a horizon analysis that highlights key changes in the framework conditions for the energy transition and offers recommendations for the strategy work.
An Energy System Under Pressure
The analysis shows that the energy system is in a period marked by geopolitical uncertainty and increasing complexity. Rivalry between major powers, trade barriers, and repeated shocks in global supply chains create uncertainty about costs, technology development, and access to raw materials. Developments following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and new trade conflicts illustrate how energy is used strategically in geopolitics – and how vulnerabilities in energy infrastructure can be exploited.
At the same time, pressure from the climate and nature crisis is mounting. The shift to low- and zero-emission solutions is progressing, but not fast enough to meet climate targets. Several technologies are growing globally, while others – such as CO₂ management and hydrogen – still require significant investments and demonstration projects. Conflicts over land use and nature values are intensifying, driving the need for solutions that safeguard both climate and nature goals.
What Does This Mean for the Strategy?
The report highlights several key areas that should be central to Energi2050’s strategy work:
- Energy security has become a national priority, with increased risks from malicious actions and extreme weather affecting supply and societal security.
- Greater flexibility is needed to manage more variable power production and keep overall system costs down.
- Geopolitical uncertainty around mineral resources and seabed minerals, a new area for Energi2050, requires an updated and comprehensive knowledge base.
- Research beyond technological fields, such as social and environmental sciences, will be crucial for implementing and gaining support for the energy transition.
- Increased politicization of global markets may create new opportunities for Norwegian suppliers.
The analysis also emphasizes the importance of strategic RDI partnerships, particularly with the EU, which is strengthening its efforts to boost competitiveness. Increased digitalization and the use of artificial intelligence demand faster innovation and commercialization.
Download the Report
The horizon analysis provides a comprehensive picture of challenges and opportunities in a time of growing complexity in the energy system. The ability to manage this complexity will be critical for Norway’s position as an energy nation during the transition.
Download the report here:
