Climate roadmaps call for new government measures to achieve goals

Norwegian industry believes it can reduce emissions substantially by 2030 and is calling for new policy measures to incentivise the necessary action. This will require resources like electricity, biomass, land, and expertise. However, sector roadmaps generally fail to analyse the scale of the implied resource requirements.

In recent years, several industry groups have presented roadmaps outlining how their greenhouse gas emissions can or should be reduced by 2030 and 2050. We examined the roadmaps set out by the following sectors: oil and gas, the process industry, agriculture, commercial transport, construction, fishing, aviation, finance, forestry, renewable energy and tourism. The roadmaps vary significantly across the dimensions we investigated.

To realise potential emission reductions and meet possible future requirements, all industries propose new regulatory and economic policy measures. Many of the proposed measures would require the use of immature technologies that cannot be implemented at the desired scale by the affected companies without some form of support. Examples of such technologies include offshore wind, CCS (carbon capture and storage), hydrogen and advanced biofuels. To accelerate the deployment of these technologies, the roadmaps highlight various economic support mechanisms, with CO2 funds and contracts for difference (CfDs) mentioned in several of the roadmaps.

Many of the roadmaps also propose the use of more traditional economic measures, e.g. subsidies and taxes, as important tools for bridging the cost difference between today’s commercial approaches and more climate-friendly alternatives. A range of regulatory measures are also proposed, often in the form of minimum levels of public procurement, placing a greater weight on the environmental consequences of public projects, or zero-emission requirements in public procurement.

Most roadmaps point out that the relevant industry would require more power and biomass to reduce its emissions but few of them discuss or quantify the sector’s current and future resource needs. In part, this may reflect uncertainty as to the most cost-effective decarbonisation technologies within these different industries.

Only four of the roadmaps examined set out specific goals for or the scale of potential emission reductions in 2030 and 2050. These are the roadmaps for the process industry, business transport, agriculture, and oil and gas. The level of emissions at the time the roadmaps were created, which varies among the different roadmaps, implies that the industries aim to reduce emissions from around 40 million tonnes CO2e to around 24 million tonnes by 2030. By 2050, all industries other than the agricultural sector have a goal of net zero emissions.

The mapping of sector roadmaps was carried out on behalf of the Norwegian Ministry of Climate and the Environment and forms an input to the work of the 2050 Climate Change Committee. The Committee was appointed to investigate the choices facing Norway as it seeks to become a low-emission society by 2050. The report reviews information contained in those sector roadmaps developed with the involvement of the private sector.

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