In 2025, the average electricity price in Northern Norway, at 14 euros per MWh, was the lowest power price in Europe, and only a fraction of the price in southern Sweden (50), south-western Norway (67) and western Denmark (83). The region produced 8.3 TWh (30 percent) more than it consumed, and the reservoirs were so full that water was released into the sea without generating any power.
Our report shows why this is not the new normal and that the era of consistently low power prices in Northern Norway is most likely over soon.
A surge in demand
Demand for grid capacity in Northern Norway has exploded. The capacity that is already reserved or waiting in the connection queue is, in total, more than twice the highest load the region has ever recorded. Since the start of 2025 alone, more than 2,300 MW has been requested. Around 70 per cent of this is data centres.
The electrification of Melkøya, the Stargate data centre already under construction, and several other data centres with reserved capacity could use up most of today’s surplus within a few years.
At the same time, little new power generation is on the way. Without new generation, the power balance weakens, prices rise, and the region could go from a power surplus to power scarcity. New generation close to demand can also relieve the grid and free up capacity for more consumption. But the low power prices in Northern Norway make new projects unattractive for investors. And once prices do rise, lengthy licensing processes, land-use conflicts and a lack of grid capacity lie ahead.
Developments in neighbouring countries point in the same direction. A large power surplus in northern Sweden has served to significantly dampen power prices in Northern Norway as well. However, consumption there is expected to grow sharply within a few years, and new transmission capacity to southern Sweden will help raise power prices across the price areas in the north. Overall, we expect power prices in Northern Norway to more than quadruple from 2025 levels towards 2030.
From grid queue to power queue
The paradox today is that power prices in Northern Norway are the lowest in Europe, while Statnett has halted new reservations for large industrial consumption north of Svartisen. The grid is the bottleneck, and much of the new capacity will not be ready until the 2030s and 2040s. The risk is a stop-start development in which the region first waits for grid, and then for power.
The report points to several measures that can ease the situation:
- Better use of the existing grid through conditional connections, batteries and dynamic line rating.
- Stricter maturity criteria in the connection queue.
- A split of NO4 into two bidding zones.
- Measures that trigger new power generation, such as contracts for difference and faster licensing.
The choices must balance industry, nature, climate, costs and security of supply concerns. Within a new geopolitical landscape, security of supply has gained increased importance in the North, where energy has become a matter of security, emergency preparedness, value creation, and future development and transition.
