Southern Norway paid around EUR 105/MWh in Q3 2026, three times the price in NO4, as high gas prices met a historically weak hydro balance. With less water in reserve, the south has coupled to continental prices just as European gas nearly tripled following the outbreak of the Iran war. Northern Norway remained insulated by a hydro surplus and limited north-south transmission capacity. THEMA’s Power Market Insights tracks these developments alongside transaction activity and project announcements across the Nordic region.
Deal flow picked up in Q2, with 38 deals, the highest Q2 count since 2022. At 121 deals LTM, activity has held steady over the past year but remains around a third below the 2023 peak. Utilities and infrastructure make up the largest segment, and Sweden is the largest target market. This issue also takes a closer look at Fortum’s acquisition of Elmera Group, which combines two of the largest players in the Norwegian household power market.
The project pipeline has stopped shrinking. Announcements recovered in H1 2026 from a weak H2 2025, and LTM volume levelled off at 88 projects. Battery storage is included in 44% of projects, and Finland is the largest market. Wind- and solar-only projects account for most of the decline since the peak, weighed down by higher financing costs and grid constraints.
This issue’s spotlight turns to Nordic demand growth, which is picking up after several flat years, led by data centres. Nordic consumption is estimated at 104% of 2019 levels in 2026. In Norway, data centres now make up more than half of reserved capacity and the grid queue at Statnett. In THEMA’s Base scenario, they have overtaken hydrogen as the largest single driver of Nordic demand growth, with their share of projected growth for 2027–2035 rising from roughly 15% in last year’s outlook to close to 40%.
If you have any questions or feedback on the report, please feel free to get in touch.
