Our long-term price forecasts help investors and developers take investment decisions, value investment opportunities, and assess market risk. Our Nordic power price forecast covers Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden out to 2050. The forecast comprises a report, complemented by detailed data in Excel format and an individual workshop. All forecasts include hourly prices and capture prices for wind and solar PV. They are updated quarterly.
Key features
Significance of climate policy: In our latest forecast, we have developed three scenarios based on different assumptions about (global) climate policy. Climate policy has a major impact on future price levels, price volatility and the generation mix.
Falling costs for renewable generation, batteries and hydrogen change the market dynamics: With falling costs for renewable power generation, batteries and hydrogen, future investments in renewable energy and storage are unlikely to require subsidies. When one accounts for consumer prices and taxes, this can have a significant effect on investment in distributed renewable energy and prosumer behaviour. The introduction of hydrogen also has the potential to become a significant provider of the flexibility required by a renewable power system.
Changing risk profile: Our forecasts come with a range of sensitivities in addition to the core scenarios, which show the importance of the most important price drivers like fossil fuel and carbon prices, changes in demand and the effect of wet/dry years.
Always up to date: Our forecasts always account for the latest market and policy developments.
Special issue: In each release, we dive deep into a topical issue related to current market and policy developments.
What you get
- Report, data in Excel format, and workshop: The forecast is delivered as a concise and to-the-point PDF report, accompanied by detailed data in Excel format. A workshop with THEMA’s power market experts is also included, in which the results and assumptions are presented and discussed.
- System and area prices for all bidding zones in Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Finland: Prices are provided with hourly time resolution for the period to 2050.
- Market understanding: The forecast provides a thorough analysis of price drivers and market risk. Using the individual workshops provided, our customers get an opportunity to discuss the results and assumptions that matter to them directly with our experts.
- Developments in the generation mix, demand, and trade: The forecast clearly describes the development of important factors like the generation mix, demand, and trade. For demand, we take into account the effects of a growing electric vehicle fleet, new data centres, and changing demand from the petroleum and other industries.
- Cannibalisation factors: We estimate the capture price for wind and solar PV in each country analysed.
- Scenarios and sensitivities: The forecast includes three scenarios as well as various sensitivities covering the most important price drivers.
