The Trends & Insights report provides insights in the latest market developments of eight different technologies that are pivotal to the energy transition, as well as a special issue with a deep dive into a key energy transition topic. Furthermore, the report covers onshore wind, offshore wind, solar PV, batteries, CCS, hydrogen, biomethane and e-fuels.
In the special issues of this edition, we take a closer look at critical raw materials that are important for some of the main pillars of the energy transition, namely wind turbines, batteries, and flexible electrolysers. We show that alternative technologies for most applications exist or are under development. However, such alternatives come at a cost: They can be more expensive, less efficient, and/or less compact, or simply not mature enough for immediate large-scale roll-out. Especially lithium (for batteries) and iridium (for PEM-electrolysers) are critical.
Critical raw material shortages thus have the potential to delay the roll-out of these key technologies significantly. We sketch out elements of an effective mitigation strategy to handle this risk.
For many of the technologies, all arrows were pointing towards higher costs in the last two years. This was primarily caused by disruption in the value chain and more expensive raw materials. For some technologies, like Solar PV, this price rally is now over, while for other technologies like wind it persists. We expect costs also for these technologies to start dropping again from 2025.
NEW FEATURE: Technology data now accessible through THEMA’s web portal.
Prognoses on cost data and capacity volumes of different technologies can now be accessed directly via the portal. This includes a separate market outlook for hydrogen, featuring LCOH-prognoses for every country, expected electrolyser capacities and projected investment costs for different hydrogen production technologies. The data can either be displayed in clearly arranged figures or downloaded for further use.
We plan to further develop this webservice and are grateful for any feedback on this pilot version.
If you are interested in a sample report or a demo of our web portal, please get in touch.