Overall, our long-term power price outlook shows increasing power prices over the next 10-15 years, before the curve flattens out. We do however see a real possibility of a global recession due to the reduced economic activity resulting from measures to contain the Corona virus. In an addendum to the power price forecasts we discuss the effect of a recession on the power and EU ETS markets.
A number of drivers affect power prices. In our power price outlook, we address the impacts of key market, political, and technological drivers based on detailed scenario and sensitivity analyses. The results show the impacts of these drivers on prices, the generation mix, demand, the capacity mix, and trade.
Our power price outlook for different market areas contain different special topics.
The special issue in our Nordic power price outlook focuses on the potential impact of electrification on power demand. How much can Nordic power demand increase in a scenario with almost full electrification, in addition to the general demand growth?
The special topic in our European power price outlook is an analysis of the impacts of the European Green Deal on carbon and power prices.
As always, all our reports are accompanied by extensive data material, wind and PV weighted prices, and workshops for those that want to discuss our forecasts in more detail with THEMA’s power market experts.
Our power price outlook portfolio consists of the following reports:
- Nordic Power Price Forecast (Norway, Sweden, Finland and Denmark at a price zone level)
- European Power Price Forecast (Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, France, Great Britain, Austria)
- Power Marker Forecast for the Baltics and Poland (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland)
- Power Market Forecast for Southern Europe (Spain, Italy, Portugal)
- Green Values (ET ETS, elcertificates, GOs and other support systems)
